Milestones
- CFTC settlement, US users blockedJan 2022Complete.
- US election drives record volumeNov 2024Complete.
- US app relaunchDec 2025Complete.
Most important updates
- 26 May 2026
- 17 Mar 2026
- 21 Jul 2025
- 13 Nov 2024
- 3 Jan 2022
Current obstacles
- Disputed outcomesVague market wording lets big UMA holders sway results, which hurts trust.
- State legal challengesUS states argue that sports event contracts are gambling under state law.
Physics limits
- Thin markets are easy to moveA price reflects money, not truth. A market with little liquidity can be pushed by one large trader, so its 'probability' may say little about the real odds.
- Someone must report realityA blockchain can't observe world events. Any voting-based oracle can be swayed when the payoff from a wrong result exceeds the cost of acquiring enough votes.
How it works
Yes and No shares
Each market has Yes and No shares that together always pay $1, so a Yes price of $0.62 reads as a 62% chance.
Matched off-chain, settled on-chain
An operator matches signed orders off-chain; trades settle on Polygon, so users keep custody of their USDC until a match.
Share pairs created on demand
When a Yes buyer meets a No buyer, their combined $1 is locked and a fresh pair of shares is created.
Bonded proposals, token vote
Outcomes are proposed with a bond. If disputed, UMA token holders vote on the answer and the losing side forfeits its bond.
Update log
Tue 26 May
- Minor: PressRegulatory
Tue 17 Mar
- Minor: PressRegulatory
Thu 30 Oct 2025
- Minor: PressRegulatory
Mon 21 Jul 2025
- Major: PressRegulatory
Fri 29 Nov 2024
- Minor: RegulatorRegulatory
Wed 13 Nov 2024
- Major: PressRegulatory
Mon 3 Jan 2022
- Major: RegulatorRegulatory
About Polymarket
Polymarket
Prediction markets, order book on Polygon
The largest prediction market: people trade shares in event outcomes, settled in USDC on the Polygon blockchain. Orders match off-chain and settle on-chain. After a 2022 CFTC settlement it returned to US users in late 2025 by buying licensed exchange QCEX.
- ICE, owner of the NYSE, agreed in Oct 2025 to invest up to $2B at about a $9B valuation.
- Raised at ~$15B in April 2026, and was reported in Aug 2026 to be seeking $20B+.
- One USDC creates a matching YES and NO share, using Gnosis's Conditional Token Framework.
- Founded
- 20206 yrs
- Headquarters
- United States
- Status
- Private
- Valuation
- $15BprivateApr 2026
- Works in
- CryptoPrediction markets
- Coverage
- 1 program · 9 updateslatest 26 May 2026checked 25 Sep
- People
- Shayne Coplan (opens en.wikipedia.org)Founder & CEO