# ECMWF prototypes AIFS Marine, one model for atmosphere, waves, sea ice and surface ocean

Canonical page: https://technooptimist.io/stories/ecmwf-prototypes-aifs-marine-one-model-for-atmosphere-waves-sea-ice-and-ce10125e
Date: 12 Oct 2026
About: [ECMWF](https://technooptimist.io/companies/ecmwf.md) · [AIFS](https://technooptimist.io/ai/aifs.md)
Original source: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/aifs-blog/2026/bringing-surface-ocean-aifs

ECMWF has published a prototype, AIFS Marine, that extends its AI forecasting model beyond the atmosphere to ocean waves, sea ice and surface-ocean fields in a single network. Its reported gain is about one extra day of medium-range skill for nearly all tested marine variables. The surface ocean and sea ice are not yet operational, and the post gives no date for them.

## Key facts

- Surface-ocean and sea-ice variables added: sea-surface temperature, salinity and height, surface currents, sea-ice concentration, volume and velocity.
- Wave variables: significant wave height, mean period and direction.
- Reported results: about one extra day of medium-range skill for nearly all marine variables; significant wave-height errors about 10% lower against satellite observations; large-scale atmospheric skill broadly unchanged.
- Known issue: sea-surface height develops a negative bias as the forecast lead time grows.
- Trained on ERA5 atmospheric data, a dedicated wave hindcast and the ORAS6 ocean reanalysis, using the open-source Anemoi framework.

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