# NOAA

Canonical page: https://technooptimist.io/companies/noaa
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration runs the National Weather Service and its forecast models. Since December 2025 it also runs AI forecast models alongside its physics-based GFS.

## In brief

- Runs AIGFS, an AI global model built by retraining DeepMind's GraphCast on NOAA's own weather analyses.
- A 16-day AIGFS forecast uses 0.3% of the computing of the physics GFS and finishes in about 40 minutes.
- HGEFS blends 31 AI and 31 physics forecasts; NOAA says no other forecaster runs such a hybrid ensemble.

## Facts

- Headquarters: US
- Status: government
- Website: https://www.noaa.gov
- Frontiers: [AI](https://technooptimist.io/ai.md) (Weather models)

## Programs

- [AIGFS](https://technooptimist.io/ai/aigfs.md) (AI): Deploy; next: Improve AI ensemble spread and hybrid intensity forecasts (2026). Operational since Dec 2025; v1.1 (July 2026) improved hurricane intensity and long-range blur.

## Technical approach

- **Base model: Retrain an open AI forecaster**: NOAA started from Google DeepMind's GraphCast and fine-tuned it on its own data-assimilation analyses, so it starts well from US initial conditions.
- **Hybrid: Mix AI and physics runs**: The hybrid ensemble pools 31 AI members with 31 physics members; together they beat either set alone on most of NOAA's scores.
- **Project EAGLE: In-house AI program**: The models came from Project EAGLE, a multi-year effort of the Weather Service, NOAA research labs, the modeling center and EPIC.

## Open problems

- **Hurricane intensity** (partially solved): AI models track storms well but smooth out peak winds; v1.0 forecast intensity worse than physics GFS and v1.1 targets this.
- **Too-narrow AI ensembles** (active research): AI ensemble members tend to agree too much, so the spread of outcomes understates real uncertainty. NOAA lists this as future work.

## Latest updates

- **27 Jul 2026**: NOAA upgrades AIGFS to v1.1 to sharpen hurricane intensity and rainfall forecasts. The National Weather Service switched AIGFS to version 1.1 from the 12:00 UTC run on 27 July 2026. ([our story](https://technooptimist.io/stories/noaa-upgrades-aigfs-to-v1-1-to-sharpen-hurricane-intensity-and-rainfall-c559bd53.md) · [original source](https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/scn26-68_AIGFS_v1.1.pdf))
- **17 Dec 2025**: NOAA puts AI global weather models into operation, led by a retrained GraphCast. NOAA launched three operational AI forecast systems: AIGFS (one best-guess forecast), AIGEFS (a 31-member AI ensemble) and HGEFS (a 62-member hybrid of AI and physics runs). ([our story](https://technooptimist.io/stories/noaa-puts-ai-global-weather-models-into-operation-led-by-a-retrained-cb104e08.md) · [original source](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-deploys-new-generation-of-ai-driven-global-weather-models))

## Partners, customers and investors

- Google DeepMind (supplier): AIGFS is GraphCast, DeepMind's open AI weather model, fine-tuned on NOAA analyses.
- Earth Prediction Innovation Center (EPIC) (partner): Provides software infrastructure and community support for Project EAGLE.
- WindBorne Systems (supplier): WindBorne balloon observations are assimilated into NOAA's Global Forecast System.

## People

- Neil Jacobs, NOAA Administrator

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